CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-10-22T04:36:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
(Note: Kp estimate also includes two CMEs from 10/20)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Oct 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1875 (N07E04, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced the majority of all flare activity along with the largest
flare of the period, an impulsive M4/1b at 22/2120 UTC. The M4 flare was
associated with a 220 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated
shock speed 1955 km/s). Region 1877 (S13E23, Dki/beta) also produced a
few low-level C-class flares throughout the period. An approximately 31°
long filament centered near N38E09 was observed lifting off the solar
disk in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between approximately 22/0235 UTC and
22/0400 UTC. Initial STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery suggested most of the
ejecta had a northerly trajectory. Additional analysis determined only a
small percentage of the ejecta appeared to be on the Sun-Earth plane.
The current WSA Enlil run now depicts this event along with the two CMEs
from 20 Oct.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (NOAA
Scale R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) flare activity for the next three days (23 -
25 Oct).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels, reaching a peak flux value of 2,430 pfu at
22/1255 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for a majority of the next three days (23 - 25 Oct). Values
may drop off near the end of day two (24 Oct) and remain at moderate
levels through day three (25 Oct) with the anticipated arrival of the
aforementioned CMEs. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds remained stable in the low 300s (km/s) for the first
half of the period, before an increase beginning at around 1400 UTC to
just near 400 km/s towards the end of the period in response to the
likely delayed onset of anticipated weak coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). IMF Bt peaked near 9 nT. IMF Bz was weakly positive for most
of the period with brief and intermittent decreases to approximately -5
nT. IMF Phi remained in a primarily negative (toward) orientation for
the majority of the period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly enhanced on day one (23
Oct) as weak CH HSS effects continue. A return to nominal conditions is
expected on the first half of day two (24 Oct). A combined arrival of
the two weak CMEs from 20 Oct along with the southern flank of the third
CME event from earlier today is expected on the second half of day two
and throughout day three (25 Oct). Wind speeds are not expected to
increase substantially from these relatively slow events.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
day one (23 Oct) and the first half of day two (24 Oct), before the
anticipated arrival of three aforementioned CMEs. Initial geomagnetic
impacts of the transients are expected to be in the form of unsettled
conditions late on day two and increase to conditions as high as active
(less than NOAA Scale G1 (Minor)) in the early periods on day three (25
Oct.)
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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Oct 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2013
 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
00-03UT 3 5 (G1) 3 
03-06UT 2 4 2 
06-09UT 2 4 2 
09-12UT 3 4 3 
12-15UT 3 4 3 
15-18UT 3 4 3 
18-21UT 3 4 3 
21-00UT 3 4 3 
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are forecast early on 25 Oct
due to expected coronal mass ejection passages.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2013
 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 24 2013 0008 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2013
 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. There
is a chance for R1 or greater radio blackouts during Oct 24-Oct 26 due
to the potential for significant active region flare activity in sunspot
Regions 1875 (N08W11) and 1877 (S12E09).
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